Locked, limit down – March 16 2020

The market’s moved to limit down late last night, this morning when they opened up we immediately hit the circuit breakers for the 15 minute trading halt.

I believe we have a reasonable chance to end up with a trading halt today given the degree of uncertainly in the market place. That would be a 20% drop in the overall markets. Given the massive ramp up Friday, that would simply require the markets to give back Friday, and have another Wednesday or Thursday from last week.

I am certainly not hoping for such a drop; however uncertainty has hit a peak and with that markets will respond with flight and fear.

At a minimum, I expect markets to close >10% down today (absent a fiscal package) from the Friday highs.

The organizations that I am engaged with in a leadership capacity are all shuttering non-essential services and finding alternative ways of working. We see similar things happening across the world; and until that all shakes out and we understand what the future may look like, I expect markets will simply continue to drop lower.

My current expectation is that we will see 1800/1750 on the SPX sooner rather than later.

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