Here is what I'm seeing for this /ES trade
This is going to be a quicky, I have lots to get done tonight – including the 10th week of my Marketing class.
Anyhow, I’ve just gone short the /ES. I think we are ready for some movement down, and with the horrible losses posted by FRE this evening, I think we should see some pressure and consolidation. My targets are highlighted on the chart. Take a look.
I’ll update more later this evening.
Update:
Well, I think the chart speaks for itself. We had a very nicely defined down channel for a few days, that was broken out of due to the good news from Citi. (Exactly how an insolvent bank that is being propped up a by the government can report good news is beyond me).
That channel is likely something we will revisit soon, however I’m becoming a little more convinced that the 715 level on the March Contract for the /ES may be a turning point. I happen to be trading the June contract which is trading at a discount to the March by roughly $3.5 points. I trade with TOS, they rolled contracts today, I wasn’t paying attention and I don’t feel like rolling back into the March contracts.
I’m going to keep my stops loose on this one. I’m pretty well hedge with my SKF puts right now. If the /ES rockets up and blows my stop out, then SKF should drop nicely, and I’ll be getting out taking down my profits. SKF is getting messed with my the greeks, today was a bad day for OTM April Puts.
Stop Update – 2:26am
Why am I still awake?
Stops have been tightened up – quite a bit. Remember, these are the June contracts so they are triggered off of that price. About $2.50 lower than the March. Conditional entry (714.75) stop @ 715, trailing stop +5 entered when /ESM9 trades at or below 708. I’m hoping the 5 point trailer allows for some wiggle. 5 points is a pretty big move.
Okay – bed – now.
