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	<title>Covered &#187; theoretical price</title>
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		<title>A trading idea&#8230; going naked on Countrywide</title>
		<link>http://www.ryanbarr.com/trading/a-trading-idea-going-naked-on-countrywide</link>
		<comments>http://www.ryanbarr.com/trading/a-trading-idea-going-naked-on-countrywide#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Jan 2008 09:25:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ryan Barr</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Options Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cfc]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[covered call]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ideas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[implied volatility]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[theoretical price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[thinkorswim]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[What would happen if... my thoughts on an interesting trading idea.  A bit of analysis and some more follow up to come in a few weeks once this plays out for real.<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style addthis_" addthis:url='http://www.ryanbarr.com/trading/a-trading-idea-going-naked-on-countrywide' addthis:title='A trading idea&#8230; going naked on Countrywide' ><a class="addthis_button_preferred_1"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_2"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_3"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_4"></a><a class="addthis_button_compact"></a></div>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><p>This is not a trade I am putting into either account.  Papermoney, or my real account.  This is simply an idea that I&#8217;m looking at.</p>
<p>I was looking through some of the older thinkorswim chats and they had a discussion about covered calls.  Now I don&#8217;t typically trade covered calls.  Not that there is anything wrong with them, they just are not my typical type of trade.</p>
<p><em>However&#8230;</em></p>
<p>Here is an interesting  little play, a little on the riskier side, but I like it&#8230; Not a covered call, a <em>synthetic </em>covered call &#8211; a naked put.</p>
<ul>
<li><em>Sell</em> 50 CFC January 2008 $7.5 Puts @ $0.25</li>
<li><em>Credit: </em>$1,250.00</li>
<li><em>Commissions: </em>$84.95</li>
<li><em>Total Credit: </em>$1,165.05</li>
<li>Risk: 28.67%</li>
<li>Commission required: $5,125.00</li>
<li><em>Percentage profit (of required margin)</em>: 22.7%</li>
<li><em>Maximum Risk:</em>$37,500</li>
</ul>
<p>Hmmm&#8230; Why on earth would I want to do this?  It&#8217;s Countrywide Financial!</p>
<p>This stock has been beaten down left right backwards and forwards.  There is still some talk of countrywide going bankrupt and well it&#8217;s just generally a questionable company right now. The reason that I&#8217;m looking at it is because the implied volatility of CFC is still so high, there appears to be money on the table here.  In this situation, I don&#8217;t mind playing insurance company.  For $0.25 per contract (<em>insurance premium</em>), I&#8217;m happy to ensure Countrywide for 15 days at $7.50 &#8211; I don&#8217;t think they are about to announce bankruptcy, at least not before their earnings call around the 28th of Jan &#8211; after my <em>theoretical </em>options expire worthless.</p>
<p>Just a few other things to look at here&#8230; The Open Interest in CFC Jan 2008 7.5 Puts is 67,932 contracts, so there is <strong>plenty</strong> of room here for me to get in and sell a few contracts, implied volatility is at 119.13% with only 15 days left until expiration, and 2,346 contracts traded on Jan 2nd&#8230; again, plenty of room to make a bet.  The theoretical price (according to my trusty tools from thinkorswim) is about $0.28, so a <em>theoretical </em>fill at $0.25 doesn&#8217;t seem to be way out there.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s pretend to put it on and see what happens&#8230;  I&#8217;m not even comfortable yet putting this into the papermoney account, so &#8211; if you read this and think it is a great idea.  Let me know, I&#8217;d love to hear how it turns out for you and about your actual fills.</p>
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